Authors: CHEN Nuo (1155201113), FANG Hanlei (1155199003), SHEN Jinnyu (1155201385), ZHU Zhaoying (1155199075)

Globalization refers to countries becoming more connected in the economic, political, cultural, and social spheres, all these resulting in a significant surge in the free movement of people across borders. Visa waivers, which mean permission to reach certain countries and regions freely, are often considered one of the indicators of global mobility for particular nations and countries, and are deeply intertwined with the process of globalization (Henley & Partners, 2024). Conversely, the cancellation of visa waivers and the imposition of visa restrictions inhibit travel uncertainty and cross-border mobility. Despite concerns that anti-globalization and nationalism may increase border control, the world has seen an increase in freedom of travel and an overall increase in the number of passport-free destinations in the last 10 years (Walter, 2021; Harpaz, 2023).

This article departs from a doubt: on May 5, 2023, the World Health Organization announced the removal of the COVID-19 public health emergency (WHO, 2023), which meant that international travel controls due to the epidemic should have ended, and visa waivers should have been reinstated to their pre-pandemic status. However, research has found that some visa waivers have not been restored and that non-epidemic-caused visa reintroduction has occurred occasionally.

The study includes 199 countries/regions (193 UN member states, 2 UN observer states – Vatican City and Palestine, 2 disputed areas – Kosovo and Taiwan, and 2 Special Administrative Regions of the People’s Republic of China – Hong Kong and Macau). Visa waiver includes three main types as shown in the following sheet. E-visa greatly saves time and effort compared to application offline and can be broadly considered as a visa waiver (Pegasus, 2018).

Three types of visa waiver:

The data of visa policy comes from the report of IATA (International Air Transport Association) updated annual year. We identified the countries that have had their visa waivers canceled by comparing the changes in visa-free destinations for each country between consecutive years. This article aims to focus on departure countries that have experienced cancellation of visa waivers issued from destination countries and the potential reason behind it. Due to the disruptions caused by the pandemic, we break the timeline into two periods: 1) pandemic era and 2) the post-pandemic era.

2019—2021: Pandemic era

Looking back, the world has undergone an undeniable shift towards reverse globalization, and the COVID-19 pandemic that outbroke from 2019 to 2021 functioned as the primary catalyst for this transformation. In response to mitigate the risk of imported infections, governments around the world have taken decisive action by canceling their visa-free policies and prioritizing domestic epidemic prevention and control efforts. Consequently, this measure led to a significant decline in the mobility of people across borders.

We have stopped counting the COVID-19-invoked cancellation of visa waivers since 2022. As we approach the end of 2022, the pandemic restrictions have been gradually lifted worldwide, marking a turning point in the trajectory. The process of recovery commenced, reviving the prospects of visa-free travel. This development symbolized a wave of actions to restore the former normalcy that had been disrupted by the pandemic.

However, many countries that faced visa waiver cancellation due to the pandemic have not yet been reinstated, which is a weird phenomenon. In these cases, the pandemic seems to have become an excuse for anti-globalization.

2022—2024: Post-pandemic era

Data analysis reveals a noticeable decline in visa waivers among countries in Asia, Oceania, Africa, and Latin America in the post-pandemic era. Vanuatu, a country in Oceania, experienced the most significant reduction in visa waivers, with refusals from 30 countries. Other countries with high frequencies of reduction are concentrated in Western Asia, South Asia, Central Africa, and Central Latin America, indicating a regional clustering trend.

To further explore the connection between visa waivers policies and regional clusters, we especially focus on several crucial regional organizations worldwide. We pair the composition of these member countries with their number of visa waivers reductions in the post-pandemic era, calculating the average decline within each group to mitigate the impact of extreme data from individual countries. This analysis aims to illustrate the trends of regional stability and influence on the mobility of citizens from these regional organizations as a collective entity.

The data demonstrates that regional organizations primarily composed of European and North American countries, such as the EU, NATO, and OSCE, exhibit a lesser decline in being visa waivers. These organizations maintain a higher level of passport stability and international access influence. On the other hand, regional organizations (SCO, ASEAN, LAIA) in Asia and Latin America experience greater fluctuations of decrease and weaker visa waivers stability. This phenomenon is a profound reflection of the unequal distribution and impact of the Visa Waiver Globalization worldwide.

To explain this phenomenon of anti-globalization, we searched for the reasons behind these cancellations from respective countries’ government official websites, immigration departments, consulates, and news websites. The reasons can be categorized and shown in the following:

Visa waiver cancellation can be primarily attributed to three main factors, with the first being related to country’s geopolitical conflicts. For example, Israeli-Palestinian and the Russia-Ukraine conflicts have significantly influenced the diplomatic relations and visa policies of various countries. The second reason is associated with asylum seekers and refugees, which indicates that visa policy is also intertwined with immigration control. The third is driven by the need to align with regional alliances’ policy, particularly that of the European Union. There are also some specific cases such as non-football fan’s visa waiver was all cancelled by Qatar during the World Cup, and numerous countries’ visa waiver were reassessed by the United Arab Emirates. It should be noted that we did not include cases where cancellation was revoked based on the principle of reciprocity. Besides, explanations are lacking in nearly one-third of the cases. Therefore, this chart is not a comprehensive overview about the data, but it does highlight some worth exploring points.

One of noteworthy phenomenon is that, due to visa waiver policies, some countries have become “second borders” for certain developed nations. From the table, we can observe that Vanuatu, Serbia, and Montenegro usually serve as transit hubs for immigrants, asylum seekers, and refugees from third-world countries entering Europe. As the European Union is facing an increasingly severe dilemma of refugees, it has prompted the EU to intensify its visa policy in these transit countries and implying that the visa issue regarding immigration and refugees may exhibit regional characteristics.

Conclusion

To summarize, this article underscores the intricate connection between visa waiver policies and immigration control, highlighting macro issues such as political conflict and social instability with complex dynamics of globalization and anti-globalization. Decreasing visa waivers and the reasons behind the fact deserve more attention as we continue to navigate the evolving landscape of global mobility in the real-world pattern.

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